A Paradigm Shift is Underway in Broadband

One topic that interests me as an editor and an observer of society and culture is, when you remove hype from the equation, and when you think beyond “the way it’s always been,” what will actually be driving bandwidth demand connectivity needs?

Speed has been central to the telecom industry for a long time, but will it always be? What will replace it?

Craig Thomas is CEO of the Broadband Forum, a global standards development organization, and I spoke at length with him about recent changes to the work areas at the Broadband Forum, and how it relates to the current and future state of telecom.

A realignment

The Broadband Forum recently announced a change to its “work areas” in order “to ensure every new project and specification focuses on enabling services-led and intelligent broadband that provides the applications and services most demanded by users.”

Now, the Forum’s five “work areas” will cover topics such as “access networks, connected users and subscriber networks, network architecture, cloud and autonomous networks,” and the “service requirements helping to direct that work.”

“So, what we have done is realigned the work areas, so it is simpler and more intuitive to members and non-members, while still allowing standalone or co-work area project development helping progress our 'services-led' broadband vision,” says Thomas. “But also, as soon as we publish a standard, it's available to the open public, for them to understand where the work fits and why it fits there.”

A major element of this shift is the “Service Requirements Work Area.”

“We are introducing a new work area, which is the Service Requirements Work Area, which is really going to be a key focus. The group will look at what service requirements need to fit above the connectivity level, not just the service requirements of the end subscriber, but also within the network for the users of the network,” said Thomas

“If you're a wholesale provider, you will have different service requirements than a network operator that's also the retail provider.”

Beyond speed

As the Broadband Forum makes this shift, one thing is clear, the future of broadband is going to be about more than speed.

“I've been in the industry over 30 years now, and we've been really good at selling on two pivot points. One is better speed. Secondly, it is the price for that connection. And that's pretty much a good model for any utility service. Now let's be clear, if I've got a 10 gigabit service with really bad latency, it's the same user experience when I've got 50 megabit and the same latency. It’s the same user experience, right? We are waking up to the fact that I don't need to, every year, increase from one gigabit to two gigabit to five gigabit to eight gigabit to 10 gigabit. The industry is waking up and saying, ‘I only need this amount of speed.’

He noted, however, that speed increases will be necessary to follow whatever applications from, say, Big Tech, are driving consumer behavior. But at that point, services may need to adjust, anyway. “When you're looking at Metaverse, 8k video, etc, there is going to be need for more speed. But equally, there's going to be a need for more appropriate service for that application.”

Thomas mentioned the fact that in mobile, we’re accustomed to downloading an app that immediately allows us to do new things, and our home broadband networks may need a new model to allow for that kind of user experience.

“What we are going to get to is a containerized world … where I can switch that service on at any time, and I want to have the right Quality of Experience (QoE) when I switch it on. Ultimately, I see QoE evolving to being a dynamic ‘Quality on Demand’ or ‘Quality of Outcome’ per user applications which seems a small difference but is a sizeable shift to an agile service delivery network. And that's ultimately where the flexibility, the agility, the intelligence of broadband has to get to.”

As I wrote at the beginning, it can be hard to understand where consumer behavior is headed, and what’s just hype. IoT proliferation always seems to lag behind predictions, for example. But the question is how to meet the subscriber where they are and provide that value.

Thomas uses gaming as an example of something that may not apply to every subscriber but nevertheless is an area where service providers have an opportunity (depending on net neutrality laws) to deliver a prioritized experience through an edge or data center solution.

“It's easy to overhype gaming. It's only maybe 20% of homes that account for gaming homes, but that's still a mass niche that is a new opportunity to add additional services to broadband offerings, whether it's $5, $10, or $20, it can be incredibly valuable to the subscriber.”

The path forward for service providers

I asked Thomas what he’s hearing from internet service providers about what they want to be able to do for their customers in this current environment.

“They want to differentiate, because you cannot look at increased ARPU unless you're differentiating the service,” said Thomas.

“A lot of the senior execs from the service provider community that are members of the Broadband Forum’s Executive Advisory Board are telling me it's the right way to go. We want to differentiate for the teleworker, versus the gamer versus the video watcher, and, by the way, more than likely, all of those people are in the same home. In fact, it may be the same person.”

And Thomas believes consumers are willing to pay a reasonable price for a service that fits their needs.

I asked him about small, local providers, and what all this means for them, with Broadband Forum’s new focus.

“They're the fastest moving,” said Thomas. “What they get, (and what they need) is the guidance, because they don't have the big R&D departments themselves, and that's where open broadband standards come in.”

He pointed to the fact that they want to future-proof their investments and ensure that their current and future vendors fit into that picture.

For smaller providers, their community connection and their size and agility is their strength.

“The local providers have two things in their favor, loyalty, because they are often seen as the community broadband provider, but they also have the ability to move quicker and to offer the right services at the right time,” said Thomas.

Big Tech

When asked whether he is concerned about what seems like encroachment from Big Tech on nearly every part of the ecosystem, Thomas is optimistic for the telecom industry, seeing partnerships and the unique strengths of telecom providers as reasons to feel good about the future.

“In a world of Big Tech and AI don’t forget that the telecom Industry is in a unique position to be seen as the ‘trusted provider’. Working at the Layer 2 to 3, the service provider won’t be intrusive, and they can focus on delivering the right services, with the appropriate user experience, for the right subscriber applications to traverse across.”

“We've seen hyperscalers introduce their own fiber and Network-as-a-Service offerings. But there's a massive opportunity for those big application providers to work with the broadband service providers as a community. Where are they going to host this material?”

Thomas is confident that the decades of expertise, experience, and abilities unique to telecom providers will not be easily replaced.

“The biggest cost in the world when it comes to broadband is digging up the ground or overhead fiber, and the telecoms provider is still uniquely placed to be able to do that and solve those logistical challenges.”

What will telecom look like in five years?

When asked about the future of telecom Thomas believes that some of the ongoing debates within the industry, 5G vs. 6G or fixed vs. wireless will become more and more irrelevant, with consumers caring only about the end result. And that might mean speed becomes less of a selling point.

“In the next five to 10 years, I don't see us jumping from one gig to 100 gig. It will be an incremental growth, but people will become more aware of their QoE and the differentiation. So, I see more flexible broadband, where people will be ticking a box and downloading immediately … if they want the gaming experience, or they want to work from home, a secure experience, or whatever that may be.”

Finally, Craig calls on the industry to join the Broadband Forum, stressing the importance of standards organizations.

“Get involved … come and join the Broadband Forum, because it's here that we're developing that broadband ecosystem, and we want the service providers, the vendors, the software providers, and the application providers, all to come together.”